Facebook, Twitter et al.: Have they crossed the chasm?

I thought it might be interesting to do an analysis on where the social networking sites are on the technology adoption cycle. Has Myspace crossed the chasm? Is Facebook in early majority or late majority? Where are Twitter and LinkedIn? And how do they compare to other modern consumer technologies like Smartphones?

The first thing I did was look at the number of total Internet users in the US. Then, I looked at the data of registered users for each of the social networking sites. After running the numbers, this is what I got:

Interesting thing to observe is that Twitter and LinkedIn are still in the early market phase. They haven’t yet crossed the chasm. Mostly technology enthusiasts and visionaries are using the product in the US. The customers at this point recognize that the technology is new and unproven and has the potential for a breakthrough.

It seems to me that Myspace was unable to cross the chasm. They died just before entering the bowling alley. Most companies fail to cross the chasm because pragmatists do not see a complete solution to their problem and there is no group of reference that have formed that they trust. We all remember the privacy concerns on Myspace.

Smartphones are a perfect example of how a technology moves from a bowling alley to the tornado phase. In the tornado phase, a mass market emerges where the product is swept into a tornado of demand. After this phase is over, a market leader will evolve. Interesting to see who wins – Apple, RIM or Google? One key to success in the Tornado phase is to expand the sales channel as fast as possible in order to capture market share at the expense of the competition. That means Apple has to partner with Verizon or RIM & Google will win the battle in the end.

And then comes Facebook in Main Street. In this phase the technology go a price decline. How is this applicable to Facebook since it was FREE from the very beginning? Does it mean declining perceived value? Most importantly, the market leader gets challenged in Main Street either with new technology or price competitive products. It will be interesting to see if Facebook can reach the Total Assimilation phase; it should be an easy ride.

It is anybody’s guess about the technologies in “Total Assimilation” Phase. Here are some examples:

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Filed under: technology, web 2.0, chasm, facebook, technology adoption cycle, twitter